It is not news that Donald Trump has been impeached. The impeachment thread had been hanging over him for a long time and it will be interesting to see what unfolds in the senate.
The US House of Rep, dominated by the Democratic Party got their wish over the President after allegations of abuse of power and obstruction of Justice.
President Trump’s tenure is known for its well-documented spats with every and anyone who holds a different view from him; from political rivals to media houses to tech companies.
What would Trump’s impeachment, if eventually removed from office, mean for Tech? This will indeed be interesting to see and I can make some predictions:
You can listen to our podcast below for a broader perspective on Trump’s impeachment
1. Business as usual with China:
One of the most notable wars of the Trump administration is the trade war with China.
President Trump has claimed to favour American interests and perhaps the statistics favour his position, with unemployment at an all-time low. America is producing American goods and in America. Big tech players have aligned, being forced to be truly American in their products.
If Trump vacates office, this will mean Big tech will go back to sourcing cheap labour from Asia and maybe Africa. This will mean more profits too due to these cost cuts.
Their share prices have largely been unaffected but it most likely will go up in the event of Trump’s removal. Investors like the sound of more profit and fewer confrontations and of course foreign investors will be unhindered.
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2. The End of Huawei’s Persecution
One of the major victims of the trade war with the Chinese is Huawei. They’ve also had to fight allegations of espionage and spying for the Chinese government. They have endured the arrest of their CEO’s daughter, Meng Wanzhou, survived a ban on their products in America, and survived being ostracised from the American tech community. They even survived being blacklisted in the Android OS.
In spite of all these challenges, the company sold more phones than Apple sold iPhones. They’ve experienced more growth in this season of persecution, building their OS and their first truly ‘Unamerican’ phone, using no American parts.
3. Twitter will be Less Interesting
President Donald Trump is world-famous for his twitter rants. It’s his favorite mode of communication to the American citizenry because to him, all news agencies except Fox News disseminate fake news.
The president does not hold back in his criticism of opponents and foes. He also doesn’t hold back on praising people using the social media site. Perhaps if he leaves, Trump will hide in disgrace, perhaps, he will continue in his glory, however, his views will be less important.
Conclusion
It is unlikely Trump will vacate the presidency. This is because the Senate will most likely block a removal. The vote at the House of reps was largely along Political lines and the same is likely to follow in the Senate where the Republicans hold a majority. It should also be noted that no Republican rep voted for Trump’s impeachment and the Democrats will be needing at least 20 Republicans to back their bid. This seems to be dead on arrival.
This will also mean Trump gets to finish his tenure, however, history has shown that no impeached American President has won re-election. The only former impeached presidents, President Lyndon Johnson, and Bill Clinton didn’t get re-elected. Johnson failed to win his party’s nomination and Clinton refused to run for re-election.
Indeed, it will be interesting to see how the pendulum swings for Trump and his political future. The only definite thing is that the impact will reverberate across the world, including the tech space.
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